Leading indicators for consumer spending in Australia

Vital forecasts and insights for retailers and their suppliers, service industries, economists, and government forecasters.

Until recently, consumer survey-based indicators have provided little explanatory power in forecasting consumer spending.  But after years of research, the secret has been cracked by Charlie Nelson, managing director of foreseechange.  It is a measure of willingness to spend, which combines with other survey based-measures to deliver forecasts and insights.  Contact Charlie.

Download a description of our leading indicator forecasting models for retail sales.

Leading indicators of retail sales volume and household consumption expenditure volume have also been developed.

Download a description of our leading indicator model for department store merchandise volume.

Customised indicators for specific activity such as luxury new vehicle sales and outbound international tourism have also been developed.

In the course of our research, we have constructed leading indicators with moderately good predictive power for house prices,  household disposable income, the household saving ratio, and GST (goods and services tax).

Consumer Pulse + Leading Indicator report

Last update: 12 August 2016